Wednesday, 22 June 2011

First steps to repair?

Yesterday, the Greek government won a vital vote of confidence as it desperately looks to shore up its ailing economy. Prime Minister George Papandreou is desperate to avoid Greece becoming the first advanced economy to default in 60 years, but the simple fact is that Athens has run out of money.


Mr Papandreou is not alone in his desperation to keep the Greek economy afloat. The European Union is well aware of the devastating affect that a Greek default could have on its single currency and eurozone ministers are currently preparing a 12bn euro bail out loan so that Greece can pay its debts. But it comes with a condition.


In order for the EU to sanction another Greek bail out, MPs must approve a series of austerity measures to the tune of 25bn euros. This step is essential for the survival of the Greek economy, but is it a step too far for the MPs? 


Yesterday's vote would suggest not. Prime Minister Papandreou took a substantial risk in calling for the vote of confidence but having reshuffled his cabinet and in spite of fears of a revolt within the governing party, he survived. This victory, however slight (155 to 143) is a strong inclination that Panhellenic Socialist Movement, Papandreou's own party have united just enough at just the right time. This victory for Mr Papandreou makes it very unlikely that his parliament will reject the austerity legislation necessary for that vital EU money. At the very least, the 155 PSM MPs united behind their government will surely support the measures.


Amongst the Greek public there are some who believe that the austerity measures are a squeeze too far and would just rather go bankrupt. Thousands had earlier gathered outside the parliament buildings to protest, but it is unlikely that they will get their wish. From the point of view of EU leaders, they are well aware that the reputation of the eurozone is in tatters and are desperate to shake the impression that the eurozone is simply bumbling from bail out to bail out.  


Should the EU loan go ahead, as I fully expect it will, the battle will still be far from over for both Greece and the European Union. 

For George Papandreou, the fight will be two-fold. Firstly, he must maintain his position in government, in the face of a fractured parliament and a population angry that things ever got this far, and secondly he must ensure that his tenure in government is remembered for putting the Greek economy on the road to recovery, not killing it completely. 

For the EU, the fight is all about damage limitation. The use of bail outs for Greece, for Ireland and for Portugal has done nothing for the reputation of the single currency, that much is obvious. It has however also had a damaging political effect on the relationships between some EU countries, with many, in the UK in particular, angry that they should have to foot the bill for the failings of a currency that is not even theirs.

For now though, all eyes are on Athens and the legislation that could quite literally save Greece.